Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x949a3c5eb1c6018239979f98822214549fd0de5e924e9c360f3457621d2b4b8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 2c | 1,088$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 17c | 616.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 177.03$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 14c | 136.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 12c | 133.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 14c | 132.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…fababacked Yes | 28c | 124.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 15c | 123.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 120.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 117.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 101.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 101.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 97.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 96.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 22c | 53.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 28c | 51.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2013…7d68backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 28.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 76c | 23.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 20.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 13.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5a…0231backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.