Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb94ba1b04c972987708b61a194927799fc2e17b0d8d521ce4473ce08c99efe70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,643$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 74c | 2,334$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.21 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 1,583$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 26c | 1,425$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.61 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 5c | 706.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 19c | 635.12$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.44 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 75c | 464.32$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 452.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 416$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 75c | 404.16$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.96 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed No | 78c | 329.87$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed No | 76c | 315.33$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 254.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 48c | 244.39$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 206.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…7765backed Yes | 24c | 191.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 190.46$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 27c | 184$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 28c | 182.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 180.89$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 23c | 170.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 29c | 163.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 162.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 21c | 152.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 151$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 36c | 140.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 135.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 135.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 130$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 80c | 125.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 25c | 125.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 29c | 113.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 74c | 107.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 78c | 102.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…af02backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked No | 73c | 97.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 96.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 25c | 88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 24c | 84.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 71.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 21c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 16c | 65.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 61.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…c8d5backed Yes | 25c | 54.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 27c | 51.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed Yes | 25c | 51.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x826c…80c6backed Yes | 78c | 50.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 22c | 46.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 54c | 44.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 69c | 43.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…1b67backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 60c | 33.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 28.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 23.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 76c | 22.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 61c | 21.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 19.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…9df0backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 78c | 15.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 76c | 15.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed No | 73c | 14.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 13.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.