Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1471bff432449abd37c255fd1608d80839efaccaeaa0e73fb9c48ce9c4c5ebf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 1c | 938.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 725.03$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 275.98$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 244$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 32c | 204$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.72 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 76c | 173.24$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.28 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…7765backed Yes | 31c | 163.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 147.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 26c | 146.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.59 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 44c | 141.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 69c | 118.57$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 10c | 114.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 97.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 24c | 95.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.17 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 92.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 90.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 34c | 88.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 38c | 87.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 61c | 82.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 41c | 80.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 78.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 75.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 36c | 69.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 46c | 69.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 69.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…7db2backed Yes | 32c | 68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 68c | 68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 66.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 62.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 32c | 60.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 67c | 58.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…fababacked Yes | 34c | 55.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 34c | 55.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 32c | 51.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 37c | 50.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 38c | 49.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 27c | 47.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 37c | 45.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed Yes | 48c | 41.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 31c | 35.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 50c | 35.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 34.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 68c | 34.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 33.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 31.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 36c | 31.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 31.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 66c | 31.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…bd5abacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 29.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 19.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 76c | 17.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.