Mls · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x949e839486b97f6765478ecb6f9825a189e70c29628660ad9680a377f0156a16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Unionof Philadelphia Union, New York Red Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfe4…3cbdbacked New York Red Bulls | 2c | 5,805$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed New York Red Bulls | 63c | 3,593$2,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,255.64 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Philadelphia Union | 36c | 2,876$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.62 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed New York Red Bulls | 67c | 2,500$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Philadelphia Union | 33c | 2,148$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…f51abacked New York Red Bulls | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Union | 33c | 826.11$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.79 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Philadelphia Union | 33c | 519.46$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.3 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Red Bulls | 68c | 518.83$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.88 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Union | 31c | 500.58$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.07 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…f040backed New York Red Bulls | 5c | 480.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Red Bulls | 67c | 378.93$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.78 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Philadelphia Union | 25c | 331.14$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.84 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed New York Red Bulls | 60c | 271.19$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.06 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Philadelphia Union | 66c | 233.31$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed New York Red Bulls | 66c | 199.94$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.96 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…262bbacked New York Red Bulls | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed New York Red Bulls | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 73cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed New York Red Bulls | 67c | 142.94$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.59 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Philadelphia Union | 33c | 129.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed New York Red Bulls | 66c | 74.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Philadelphia Union | 74c | 72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Philadelphia Union | 25c | 70.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Philadelphia Union | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed New York Red Bulls | 67c | 59.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked New York Red Bulls | 21c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Philadelphia Union | 43c | 56.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…3d44backed New York Red Bulls | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Philadelphia Union | 69c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Philadelphia Union | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…8f52backed New York Red Bulls | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…a694backed Philadelphia Union | 33c | 44.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed New York Red Bulls | 68c | 43.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Red Bulls | 69c | 30.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Philadelphia Union | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked New York Red Bulls | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Philadelphia Union | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb730…e9c2backed New York Red Bulls | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…25fbbacked New York Red Bulls | 67c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…a901backed New York Red Bulls | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Union | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: New York Red Bulls 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: New York Red Bulls O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: New York Red Bulls O/U 1.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: New York Red Bulls O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: Philadelphia Union O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: Philadelphia Union O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: Philadelphia Union O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.