TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,759
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,900

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,759 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5f9…87b0backed Over46c42,537$19,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,098.149649%47 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over44c9,228$4,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,192.7827837.8%105 W · 173 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under55c8,000$4,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,37017740.7%72 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under54c7,471$4,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,051.013,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under55c4,960$2,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,718.851,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under53c3,849$2,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,026.0898945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Under54c3,835$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,070.686250%31 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Under53c3,739$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007949.4%39 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Under54c3,082$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.283438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under56c2,500$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.6870249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under55c2,500$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.9572850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Under54c2,035$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.721450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Under61c1,195$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.4623953.6%128 W · 111 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under51c1,054$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.911,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5404751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Over47c974.71$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.414652.1%76 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under54c925$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.555750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under54c925$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.568550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb341…88e7backed Under56c924.99$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under51c888.66$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.4799340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under56c874.13$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.5133346.8%156 W · 177 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f39…e279backed Over51c828.89$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.932669.2%18 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+13.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under51c824.37$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.161,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2906…555abacked Under56c800$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-46.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under55c767.79$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.3391553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Under54c614.96$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.083046.7%14 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Over38c599.99$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.993268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Over44c580.83$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.4938246.1%176 W · 206 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over38c558.22$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.111854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under56c512$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.7227047%127 W · 143 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Under56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28014062.1%87 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0366…a001backed Under56c499.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under53c475.82$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9782044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Over46c469.99$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.393751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Under54c446$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.424528.9%13 W · 32 L-6.5wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under54c374.32$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.1310042%42 W · 58 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Over69c356.49$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7916437.2%61 W · 103 L-11.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under49c320.57$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.91,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Over49c280$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.1212667.5%85 W · 41 L+11.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under31c268.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2571443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under43c227.68$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6580249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10a…d6c2backed Over47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.779940.4%40 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5651…e11ebacked Over47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.77450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4d…be6fbacked Under48c210.46$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Under37c199.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741816.7%3 W · 15 L-4.8wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-60.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under54c177$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3135149.6%174 W · 177 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Under54c157$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7818456.5%104 W · 80 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under55c149$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.71,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Under45c148$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.617244.8%77 W · 95 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under54c143.79$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6568150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over46c141.3$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.36250%31 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Under54c138$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5252923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Under56c128.73$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.096558.5%38 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under43c128.21$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1592346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over47c127.67$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3736247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Under54c118.02$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8811848.3%57 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa384…3c9fbacked Over43c117$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.692751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over48c115.79$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4896756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Under54c113.77$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4411650.9%59 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under45c108.15$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4547240.7%192 W · 280 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5417751.4%91 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a64…683ebacked Under54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Under51c97.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.817367.1%49 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Under56c96.46$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.028129.6%24 W · 57 L-10.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Over76c92.64$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4417137.4%64 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc60…6c08backed Under54c89.81$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+24.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over47c83.76$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4653040.6%215 W · 315 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Under55c81.64$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.535954.2%32 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Over41c80.49$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.491931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Under54c75.43$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.888454.8%46 W · 38 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under53c68$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3526150.2%131 W · 130 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under53c65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3230444.1%134 W · 170 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b5…b765backed Under40c60.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under51c60.54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9735247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1010…d793backed Under55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3314349%70 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fd9…932fbacked Under54c59.44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.13265.6%21 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd81c…d3fabacked Over59c57.56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+41.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Over45c56.92$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4511144.1%49 W · 62 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Under55c54.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0519642.9%84 W · 112 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x819a…4b03backed Under53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Under54c43.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.723551.4%18 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6709…6726backed Under59c42.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Under35c39.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0544447.3%210 W · 234 L-1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x392a…a334backed Under54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0daf…17a9backed Under54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90b3…8b6dbacked Over56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.71966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf672…c3c4backed Under57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202060%12 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x74d8…3b2bbacked Under58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under55c33.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3114957.7%86 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Over49c31.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8723350.6%118 W · 115 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2126…aeebbacked Over54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Over55c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6130735.2%108 W · 199 L-32.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over43c27.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.873438.1%280 W · 454 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ff5…051fbacked Under59c27.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe79f…0204backed Under56c26.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under54c26.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2112058.3%70 W · 50 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x911c…87bcbacked Under59c25.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under54c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.69245.7%42 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ac…c3d9backed Over59c20.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.544780.9%38 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick70cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Under55c20.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.349654.2%52 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.