Mls · resolved market
Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x581f3c9b14b5e25adcbae65f94267226af7451f59ab284ec3fedd85cd6027d30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 34c | 10,065$3,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,640.01 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 55c | 9,091$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.98 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 68c | 3,125$2,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.12 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 25c | 2,898$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.99 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 74c | 2,796$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.01 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 2,769$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.01 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 17c | 1,705$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.61 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 70c | 1,514$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.49 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 25c | 1,484$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.51 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 75c | 512$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 22c | 487.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.31 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Over | 56c | 399.96$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.98 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 22c | 380.14$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.7wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 79c | 338.43$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 32c | 333.49$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.61 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…4a1fbacked Over | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 43c | 298.56$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.46 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 49c | 250.18$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.15 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 42c | 248.84$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed Over | 30c | 205.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 25c | 201.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 41c | 147.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.16 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed Under | 52c | 141.39$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 72c | 118.34$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.09 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +13.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 45c | 117.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 45c | 113.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 41c | 110.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 57c | 108$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 26c | 102$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 45c | 95.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…a213backed Under | 45c | 93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +32%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 47c | 88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 59c | 84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Over | 61c | 79.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 62c | 69.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 36c | 61.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 21c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 35c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 29c | 53.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 43c | 51.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 44c | 50.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 30c | 48.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Under | 75c | 48.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 54c | 46.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 36c | 44.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…d5fdbacked Under | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 53c | 35.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 74c | 34.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 36c | 32.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…25fbbacked Under | 45c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 45c | 31.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…4fa6backed Under | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 45c | 29.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 62c | 28.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: New York Red Bulls 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: New York Red Bulls O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: New York Red Bulls O/U 1.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: New York Red Bulls O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: Philadelphia Union O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: Philadelphia Union O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: Philadelphia Union O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.