Mls · resolved market
Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1fc7b61426ad607189538a81eb89996b89e0f649e34d62279e057b875d72265
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 17c | 4,110$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.72 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 2,534$1,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.1 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 34c | 1,491$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.97 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 34c | 1,288$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.25 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 78c | 890$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.8 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed Over | 70c | 727.49$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.52 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 17c | 567.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 25c | 467.36$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.61 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 71c | 384.58$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.06 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Over | 80c | 384$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 20c | 336.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 25c | 293$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Under | 33c | 292.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 66c | 281.35$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.66 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 31c | 265.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…755fbacked Under | 39c | 261$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 61c | 248.64$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.97 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 32c | 126.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 34c | 115.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Under | 34c | 99.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 15c | 99.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 29c | 93.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 71c | 85.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 80c | 81.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…521fbacked Over | 66c | 74.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…f0a6backed Over | 67c | 73.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 80c | 73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 68c | 69.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 20c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 75c | 68.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed Under | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 24c | 59.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Under | 31c | 40.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c1…244dbacked Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 33c | 30.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Over | 67c | 26.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 67c | 24.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19e…890bbacked Over | 66c | 19.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…97cebacked Over | 68c | 16.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa625…fac6backed Over | 68c | 16.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: New York Red Bulls 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: New York Red Bulls O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: New York Red Bulls O/U 1.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: New York Red Bulls O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: Philadelphia Union O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: Philadelphia Union O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: Philadelphia Union O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.