NHL · resolved market
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be Eastern Conference champions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94a142781b709904fceedf037859c3327fbbc74567af65741ce215e7260dd5da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 21c | 11,488$2,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.01 | 265 | 47.5%126 W · 139 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked No | 79c | 7,581$5,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.12 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,867$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.04 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 20c | 1,003$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…f757backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 25c | 800$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.82 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked Yes | 19c | 770$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.7 | 117 | 47%55 W · 62 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd428…5f21backed Yes | 20c | 640$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…193abacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb014…b3fabacked Yes | 29c | 444.01$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 23c | 331.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 229.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked Yes | 21c | 227.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 203$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Yes | 22c | 202$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4931…7c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 190$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 9c | 181.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 80c | 160$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 27c | 136.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 362 | 42%152 W · 210 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…766dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed Yes | 22c | 92.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 39c | 81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 80c | 69.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 72c | 67.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1c…380bbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45f6…9f73backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…2a22backed No | 78c | 30.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda9…0aa8backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be Eastern Conference champions?this page
- Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions?No won
- Will the Florida Panthers be Eastern Conference champions?Yes won
- Will the Montreal Canadiens be Eastern Conference champions?No won
- Will the New Jersey Devils be Eastern Conference champions?No won
- Will the Ottawa Senators be Eastern Conference champions?No won
- Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be Eastern Conference champions?No won
- Will the Washington Capitals be Eastern Conference champions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.