Ukraine · resolved market
Trump x Zelenskyy talk before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94f50b02bf671307cf5ab18a825ee83942e276eca3ba773be5d8664293df2985
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 70c | 1,836$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.08 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 4c | 1,229$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes | 25c | 837.04$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.33 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 58c | 791.35$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.06 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 78c | 790$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.14 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 25c | 477.11$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.05 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…b08abacked No | 51c | 449.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 36c | 400$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 353.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.22 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 6c | 313.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672e…ee05backed Yes | 29c | 289.74$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +248.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…70a6backed No | 4c | 247.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…283bbacked Yes | 36c | 204.04$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…a970backed No | 64c | 196.46$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 194.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09e…9bbebacked Yes | 27c | 190$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 7c | 174.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…6bb9backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked Yes | 28c | 158.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.56 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a2…e144backed Yes | 32c | 156.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 37c | 149.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 42c | 127.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 60c | 127.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…648dbacked No | 13c | 109$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 90.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…442ebacked No | 62c | 80.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…8f68backed Yes | 26c | 80.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…cb22backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 72c | 69.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0168…ab3fbacked Yes | 31c | 64.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 20c | 62.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…4e3bbacked No | 74c | 44.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…ecf8backed Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffd…65ccbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.