Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9510be65bcac07b706bcfbfbf9a00f9102cb0f4e0b7a8e1f0b7e2ddb1dc34bee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 8c | 429.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 294.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…fd39backed No | 76c | 197.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 186.79$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 13c | 149.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…28d5backed No | 75c | 132.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 106.59$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 14c | 99.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 93.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 33c | 90.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 27c | 71.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 68.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 25c | 66.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 26c | 59.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed Yes | 19c | 59.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…7d4bbacked Yes | 30c | 58.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 52.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 30c | 50.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…68ffbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…40c6backed Yes | 26c | 47.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked Yes | 22c | 47.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 46.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 27c | 38.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 37.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 31c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 36.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…a285backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa021…d5c9backed No | 72c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 15.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.