Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc09d90acb6671fdbfe477b1a50a6a067d8532bc1616ce31649308965adee3fe9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 289.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 251.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 239.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 231.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.73 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 226.18$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 63c | 225.8$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.67 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 31c | 221.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.59 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 22c | 214$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.48 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 37c | 202$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.08 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 144.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 134.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 107.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked Yes | 32c | 103.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 67c | 98.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 27c | 91.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 73.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 27c | 66.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 65.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 70c | 64.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 77c | 61.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 41c | 59.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 54.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 51.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 24c | 49.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 24c | 48.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 68c | 46.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 45.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 27c | 37.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 32.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 31.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 46c | 31.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5868…64c8backed No | 78c | 30.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 52c | 25.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 78c | 18.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed No | 68c | 16.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 15.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.