Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0b299a3022b7845733784338d043bd9f4c7cd4ee7d5f548184a6b87178b009b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x937b…bfabbacked No | 78c | 999.89$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.08 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 53c | 360$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.85 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 48c | 333.81$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.51 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 50c | 283.54$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.75 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 265.74$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.41 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed Yes | 47c | 263.91$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 52c | 206.44$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0a92backed Yes | 71c | 169.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 144.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 68c | 132.03$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.39 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 123$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 45c | 109.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 70c | 108.56$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 103.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked Yes | 48c | 102.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…40c6backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…945ebacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 90.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed Yes | 64c | 78.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 77.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 75.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 40c | 68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1928…1171backed Yes | 71c | 63.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 60.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 61c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 61c | 49.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 46.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 40c | 46.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 28c | 45.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 46c | 42.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 60c | 42.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 39.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 48c | 39.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 46c | 36.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 54c | 36.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 51c | 33.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x114d…661fbacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 69c | 28.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 47c | 26.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 61c | 21.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 49c | 21.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 19.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99e3…3169backed Yes | 70c | 19.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 61c | 18.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 63c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 71c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.