MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x957876c3c07ba4a6e91440c8f921552e8a2fc0cfe04170898ff620abfd2e1e1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 0c | 28,276$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 60c | 11,712$7,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,691.25 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 11,589$4,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,807.85 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 57c | 9,815$5,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,197.92 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 42c | 3,173$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.77 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 42c | 2,426$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.77 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 41c | 2,376$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.85 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 56c | 1,735$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.05 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 1,501$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.26 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Over | 44c | 1,255$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.4 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 1,061$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 43c | 1,043$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.16 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 52c | 1,020$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.41 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…7bdabacked Over | 44c | 721.4$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 35c | 613.04$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.19 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 43c | 589.23$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.9 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 59c | 578.11$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.7 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 40c | 555.29$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.12 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 532.4$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Over | 40c | 531.5$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.6 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 40c | 510.42$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.06 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 46c | 432.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.55 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 41c | 372.56$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.01 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Under | 52c | 323.41$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.24 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 40c | 282.58$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.03 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…523bbacked Under | 52c | 268.64$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 61c | 258.8$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 191.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 42c | 179.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 43c | 173.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 169.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 48c | 168.55$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 52c | 168.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Under | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 70c | 140.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 30c | 131.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Under | 52c | 116.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 66c | 112$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Over | 43c | 107.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 47c | 107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 53c | 103.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Over | 44c | 91.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Under | 52c | 91.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 41c | 90.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Under | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 44c | 83.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 44c | 77.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Over | 42c | 68.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked Over | 42c | 68.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…57a9backed Over | 40c | 55.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 60c | 49.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 57c | 44.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 33c | 44.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Under | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 47c | 33.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 67c | 33.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…4943backed Under | 59c | 33.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Under | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 57c | 32.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 60c | 29.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 42c | 27.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f43…01a8backed Over | 45c | 24.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Under | 44c | 24.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 63c | 23.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 54c | 21.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Under | 56c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 57c | 18.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 60c | 16.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red SoxDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.