CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95a5bd7ec16a076b274e5abc1e87ef064ef21b1d36a5ec2420b3f0a0d18b456f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DXA Esportsof MARKandLARRY, DXA Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed DXA Esports | 45c | 1,117$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.63 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…0c20backed DXA Esports | 38c | 700$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434 | 261 | 55.2%144 W · 117 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…acc1backed DXA Esports | 51c | 606.14$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.68 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…6704backed MARKandLARRY | 57c | 595.68$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.27 | 205 | 62.4%128 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…971ebacked MARKandLARRY | 65c | 586.66$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.68 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40e…9770backed MARKandLARRY | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 179 | 51.4%92 W · 87 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed MARKandLARRY | 49c | 489.92$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.44 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed DXA Esports | 36c | 388.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.38 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed MARKandLARRY | 62c | 374$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.53 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6023…7141backed MARKandLARRY | 23c | 284.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed DXA Esports | 47c | 268$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.71 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed MARKandLARRY | 62c | 244.53$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.3 | 773 | 51.2%396 W · 377 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked MARKandLARRY | 45c | 210.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed DXA Esports | 41c | 205$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.64 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked DXA Esports | 46c | 203.2$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.21 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…fdaabacked DXA Esports | 60c | 201.58$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed MARKandLARRY | 61c | 198.67$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.19 | 576 | 41.5%239 W · 337 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9445…d90cbacked DXA Esports | 23c | 190.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed MARKandLARRY | 15c | 182.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 160 | 23.8%38 W · 122 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked DXA Esports | 38c | 158.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked MARKandLARRY | 58c | 143.37$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed MARKandLARRY | 38c | 142.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked DXA Esports | 27c | 133.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 306 | 38.9%119 W · 187 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked DXA Esports | 29c | 129.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.85 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed DXA Esports | 39c | 127.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 500 | 51.4%257 W · 243 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked MARKandLARRY | 48c | 116.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed MARKandLARRY | 53c | 112.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed DXA Esports | 26c | 107.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 263 | 44.1%116 W · 147 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed DXA Esports | 40c | 103.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 404 | 49.8%201 W · 203 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed MARKandLARRY | 71c | 101.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked MARKandLARRY | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed DXA Esports | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked MARKandLARRY | 57c | 99.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…cf6bbacked MARKandLARRY | 49c | 95.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 143 | 31.5%45 W · 98 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked MARKandLARRY | 70c | 93.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 211 | 46%97 W · 114 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed DXA Esports | 41c | 92.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked MARKandLARRY | 71c | 91.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d6…041dbacked MARKandLARRY | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -13.0wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked MARKandLARRY | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…7cccbacked MARKandLARRY | 63c | 79.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 454 | 50.2%228 W · 226 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed DXA Esports | 49c | 78.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed MARKandLARRY | 51c | 78.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed DXA Esports | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 838 | 56.1%470 W · 368 L | +31.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed DXA Esports | 40c | 76.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked DXA Esports | 50c | 72.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…c028backed MARKandLARRY | 65c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6c…701bbacked MARKandLARRY | 58c | 62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed DXA Esports | 39c | 60.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed MARKandLARRY | 61c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bc…46cebacked MARKandLARRY | 60c | 55.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed MARKandLARRY | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 309 | 39.2%121 W · 188 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked DXA Esports | 41c | 52.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked MARKandLARRY | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 600 | 32.3%194 W · 406 L | -49.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…a9ebbacked MARKandLARRY | 59c | 49.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MARKandLARRY | 56c | 49.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9444…048ebacked DXA Esports | 39c | 48.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked MARKandLARRY | 64c | 47.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 512 | 52.1%267 W · 245 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked MARKandLARRY | 48c | 44.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed MARKandLARRY | 74c | 40.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed DXA Esports | 39c | 39.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…17e6backed DXA Esports | 38c | 39.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked MARKandLARRY | 62c | 39.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed DXA Esports | 40c | 37.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed DXA Esports | 40c | 37.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 347 | 50.7%176 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed MARKandLARRY | 59c | 36.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked MARKandLARRY | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,043 | 57.3%598 W · 445 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…7c12backed MARKandLARRY | 70c | 34.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 523 | 69.4%363 W · 160 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked MARKandLARRY | 70c | 32.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d1…1ec3backed DXA Esports | 40c | 31.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked MARKandLARRY | 43c | 26.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked MARKandLARRY | 65c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe145…468dbacked DXA Esports | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed MARKandLARRY | 62c | 22.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed MARKandLARRY | 60c | 21.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 890 | 46.1%410 W · 480 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed MARKandLARRY | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 457 | 54.5%249 W · 208 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…8cd8backed DXA Esports | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4270…6168backed DXA Esports | 74c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed MARKandLARRY | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports - Map 1 WinnerMARKandLARRY won
- Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports - Map 2 WinnerDXA Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.