Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95b9919cabdd0551f0f2ea84eb4bd591e396fc63cc0f99913348db2a8de2427e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 964.92$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.79 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 59c | 316.67$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.9 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 295.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 45c | 212.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 40c | 158.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 16c | 155.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 65c | 152.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 144.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 132.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 127.35$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 20c | 127$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 71c | 126.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 67c | 115$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 114$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 69c | 108.48$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 103.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 56c | 86.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 79c | 75.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 65c | 70.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 52.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 34c | 51.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 47.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 46.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 27c | 42.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 43c | 42.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 41.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 49c | 35.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21f…5bbbbacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 72c | 34.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 58c | 33.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 32.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 28.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 25.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe63a…0679backed No | 65c | 23.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 71c | 23.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 23.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd192…d266backed No | 62c | 22.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 55c | 22.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 66c | 19.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.