Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95cc536f069076d4ece98d71c9a9f05e87f3c23f2e325f16f1255d8eea19948f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed OG | 47c | 4,500$2,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,115 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit | 55c | 2,965$1,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.91 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…2effbacked Team Spirit | 53c | 2,766$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.05 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…fa91backed OG | 43c | 2,445$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.24 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…01d6backed Team Spirit | 53c | 2,059$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.04 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…f5c4backed Team Spirit | 58c | 2,039$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.53 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked OG | 57c | 1,353$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…4197backed OG | 44c | 1,179$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.05 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked OG | 45c | 1,090$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.95 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed OG | 47c | 800$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.17 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…c111backed Team Spirit | 55c | 636.36$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.36 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…ef1dbacked OG | 43c | 581.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Spirit | 42c | 481.37$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.19 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…c1dbbacked Team Spirit | 72c | 308$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked OG | 44c | 301.6$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 281 | 45.6%128 W · 153 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed OG | 46c | 261.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.16 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed OG | 43c | 240$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…40e8backed Team Spirit | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed OG | 44c | 214.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Team Spirit | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 235 | 29.4%69 W · 166 L | -21.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Team Spirit | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed OG | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…c244backed Team Spirit | 57c | 194.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 295 | 46.1%136 W · 159 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…8c55backed Team Spirit | 58c | 173$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed1…eedbbacked OG | 42c | 168$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Spirit | 54c | 162$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Team Spirit | 42c | 133$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Team Spirit | 42c | 133$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Team Spirit | 57c | 130$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Spirit | 50c | 114$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked Team Spirit | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed OG | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed OG | 45c | 95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed Team Spirit | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Spirit | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed OG | 39c | 87.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed OG | 45c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Team Spirit | 55c | 69.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed Team Spirit | 60c | 66.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked OG | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…c91fbacked Team Spirit | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…0b73backed Team Spirit | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed OG | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Team Spirit | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Team Spirit | 54c | 41.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed OG | 52c | 20.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Team Spirit | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bb…cad6backed Team Spirit | 58c | 20.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance QualifierTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.