MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 18.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9655963201f86ba49eb26d5e5ec9227c89543843384733f3de4c756279d10d14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 1,879$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.52 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 1,749$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.66 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 497.37$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.71 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 42c | 305.31$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.08 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 58c | 247.62$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…202abacked Over | 63c | 235.51$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 49c | 201.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 49c | 201.06$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 49c | 162.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 49c | 143.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 134.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 42c | 123.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 318 | 49.7%158 W · 160 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 49c | 100.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 51c | 99.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 49c | 90.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 49c | 90.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 49c | 76.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 46c | 55.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 46c | 55.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 53c | 50.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 50c | 48.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 50c | 48.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 50c | 48.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 50c | 48.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Over | 50c | 48.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 38c | 47.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 53c | 40.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 56c | 33.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 49c | 29.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed Over | 57c | 27.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 23.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 50c | 22.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…e409backed Over | 55c | 22.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 56c | 18.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Over | 56c | 18.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 18.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. AthleticsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 22.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.