MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee76a15798be8dae02895ff7d9986f04e44d06f61eb4e46dd453d8ab6ab28f47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Milwaukee Brewers, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Athletics | 64c | 20,000$12,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,282.36 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 12,188$4,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,428.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics | 63c | 8,255$5,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,066.07 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 5,117$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.18 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Athletics | 62c | 3,640$2,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.11 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 3,262$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.73 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 3,252$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 2,917$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.12 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 24c | 2,607$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 998$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.04 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 715$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.32 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Athletics | 63c | 460$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 361$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 63c | 345.68$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.86 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 231.59$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 52c | 195.43$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.73 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 185$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 12c | 164.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 156$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 65c | 156$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…c745backed Athletics | 64c | 115.44$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 106.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Athletics | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Athletics | 70c | 75.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3af…b7a6backed Athletics | 79c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 56.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 53.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 62c | 34.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 27.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 16.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. AthleticsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 18.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 22.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.