MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66219071fe790e56941b1b2870eb61f1442d2c76f287449ecb267890c58c6ffc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Athletics, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Athletics | 60c | 20,431$12,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,317.24 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 14,417$5,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,794.27 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 10,909$4,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,417.77 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 4,800$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,916.86 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Athletics | 33c | 2,741$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.53 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 2,152$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.83 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Athletics | 23c | 1,304$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.87 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 961.53$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.53 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 903.26$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.3 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Athletics | 21c | 309.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 285.15$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics | 58c | 240.36$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.91 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 226.59$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.56 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 206.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.38 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 165.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 22c | 162.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 153$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Athletics | 74c | 121.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 113.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Athletics | 65c | 100.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Athletics | 26c | 93.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 92.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0874…6277backed Milwaukee Brewers | 16c | 71.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 20cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Athletics | 33c | 62.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Athletics | 33c | 51.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 50.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Athletics | 26c | 49.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Athletics | 26c | 49.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Athletics | 26c | 49.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Athletics | 26c | 49.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Athletics | 26c | 49.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 49.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 47.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 462 | 51.7%239 W · 223 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 31.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 27.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 26.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…c745backed Athletics | 62c | 26.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 26.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 26.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 22.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4023…5746backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 21.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. AthleticsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 18.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 22.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.