Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: NOVA (-1.5) vs Trace Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9665f75a5fa9de05af5851d4835c02380a0fd3ad82b96ddf7db61c5ed0f4ffc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trace Esportsof Nova Esports, Trace Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Nova Esports | 38c | 666$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.08 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Trace Esports | 62c | 554.98$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.89 | 339 | 42.2%143 W · 196 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Trace Esports | 62c | 509.85$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.42 | 930 | 49.4%459 W · 471 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Trace Esports | 62c | 501$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.38 | 201 | 60.2%121 W · 80 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Trace Esports | 38c | 455.84$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.77 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Nova Esports | 59c | 229.96$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Nova Esports | 38c | 199.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Trace Esports | 48c | 199.38$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 407 | 31.7%129 W · 278 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed8…2c70backed Nova Esports | 69c | 171.04$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.02 | 132 | 61.4%81 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Trace Esports | 61c | 138.6$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 639 | 55.6%355 W · 284 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcda…5e95backed Nova Esports | 50c | 120.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Nova Esports | 34c | 102.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 543 | 42.4%230 W · 313 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…c45dbacked Nova Esports | 39c | 102.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Nova Esports | 39c | 92.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b6…d353backed Nova Esports | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 251 | 46.6%117 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Trace Esports | 61c | 76.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 164 | 51.8%85 W · 79 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Trace Esports | 58c | 72.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 214 | 57%122 W · 92 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Trace Esports | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 492 | 55.3%272 W · 220 L | +23.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe011…159fbacked Trace Esports | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e27…5f33backed Nova Esports | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Nova Esports | 38c | 49.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cef…dbcbbacked Nova Esports | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 47.3%96 W · 107 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Nova Esports | 68c | 42.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Nova Esports | 44c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 553 | 48.3%267 W · 286 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Nova Esports | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f25…f17fbacked Trace Esports | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NOVA (-1.5) vs Trace Esports (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nova Esports (-2.5) vs Trace Esports (+2.5)Trace Esports won
- Valorant: Trace Esports vs Nova Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group AlphaNova Esports won
- Valorant: Trace Esports vs Nova Esports - Map 1 WinnerNova Esports won
- Valorant: Trace Esports vs Nova Esports - Map 2 WinnerTrace Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.