MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x966b135c758b24671ab08ed6200d9e561bc3fb386c301b68a470706edc4b9f94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 4,822$3,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 4,552$2,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,905.77 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…6fc8backed Cincinnati Reds | 20c | 1,505$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.85 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3464…8112backed Cincinnati Reds | 20c | 1,499$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 28c | 1,473$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.75 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 1,128$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.73 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 790.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.33 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 640.52$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.12 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…5fb4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 563.16$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 399.13$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.94 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 371$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.73 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.14 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Cincinnati Reds | 17c | 346$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 266.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.26 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 266.03$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 263$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.69 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 260$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 243.17$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.63 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 201.7$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cincinnati Reds | 23c | 158.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 137.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 133.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 120.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 100.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Cincinnati Reds | 27c | 84.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 72.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb633…871abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 70.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 67.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Cincinnati Reds | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Cincinnati Reds | 22c | 59.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 54.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 49.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 44.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 41.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 40.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 38.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 34.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 30.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 23.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 21.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 80c | 17.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 17.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.