MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd12da4e529bf524baec699a334c17df4a613a04a68fd2374d0c53573b2c83de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 49c | 4,048$1,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.12 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 53c | 2,822$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.54 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 47c | 1,170$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.81 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 59c | 1,020$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.7 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 989.8$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.98 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Under | 53c | 713.86$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.35 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 673.22$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.23 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 51c | 597.53$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.74 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 47c | 495.92$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.84 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 53c | 469.99$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.1 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Under | 53c | 393$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.29 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 17c | 392$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Over | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6a…1ddbbacked Over | 47c | 262.6$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 17c | 228$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 62c | 197.3$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.22 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 47c | 170$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 52c | 167.31$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Under | 20c | 149.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 17c | 140.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 42c | 130.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 115.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 47c | 114.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 18c | 110.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 47c | 98.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 87.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 52c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 48c | 75.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 48c | 69.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Over | 38c | 48.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 53c | 48.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ba…cf3fbacked Under | 66c | 45.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…de82backed Under | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 57c | 43.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 62c | 39.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 59c | 36.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 41c | 34.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 34c | 34.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 30.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd739…25b1backed Under | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 53c | 22.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.