NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9692e103cdd00ae0cb5e5c2392fc6b732874aac972ebf7579d86c256a9ca0666
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 76ersof Rockets, 76ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed 76ers | 50c | 42,998$21,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,555.28 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rockets | 50c | 15,292$7,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,646 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Rockets | 50c | 14,049$7,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,035.59 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 50c | 5,903$2,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,958.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Rockets | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 375 | 57.6%216 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Rockets | 54c | 1,990$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.41 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets | 53c | 1,003$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.59 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Rockets | 51c | 800$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 76ers | 46c | 718.91$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.85 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed 76ers | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked 76ers | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Rockets | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Rockets | 52c | 281$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.26 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Rockets | 53c | 179.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed 76ers | 46c | 144$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed 76ers | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Rockets | 57c | 124.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…7061backed Rockets | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked 76ers | 43c | 99.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed 76ers | 46c | 82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Rockets | 52c | 76.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed 76ers | 47c | 73.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Rockets | 54c | 55.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Rockets | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Rockets | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Rockets | 53c | 37.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Rockets | 54c | 35.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed 76ers | 46c | 32.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed 76ers | 46c | 30.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…57ffbacked 76ers | 50c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed 76ers | 46c | 23.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked 76ers | 46c | 23.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…6e5bbacked 76ers | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Rockets | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Rockets | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Rockets | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-1.5)76ers won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Paul George: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Paul George: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Paul George: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Rockets vs. 76ers76ers won
- Rockets vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline76ers won
- Rockets vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Rockets vs. 76ers: O/U 220.5Over won
- Rockets vs. 76ers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Rockets vs. 76ers: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)76ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.