MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96c8d405361d0286a7f96ef1d1dc77346059d8c8a769296d1afbb3f6fad835be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 38c | 29,027$10,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,128.21 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 19,028$12,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,041.38 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 61c | 10,507$6,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,393.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 63c | 6,605$4,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,171.84 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 6,337$2,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,993.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 64c | 2,845$1,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820.9 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 2,816$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.56 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 36c | 2,290$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.61 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 2,074$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 37c | 1,527$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.37 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 39c | 1,403$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.23 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 62c | 624.99$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Under | 64c | 600$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 61c | 237$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.57 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 26c | 226.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.91 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 39c | 220$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.2 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 53c | 188.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 72c | 153.38$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 73c | 149.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 67c | 147.07$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 33c | 129.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 65c | 123.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 122.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 28c | 111.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 62c | 106.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 55c | 99.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 36c | 94.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 37c | 61.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Under | 62c | 61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…3a32backed Over | 35c | 51.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 63c | 42.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 66c | 37.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 33c | 31.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 39c | 30.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 41c | 29.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Under | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 96 | 62.5%60 W · 36 L | +11.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 63c | 19.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b2…a6a3backed Under | 64c | 17.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. San Francisco GiantsAthletics won
- Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.