Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96cdd75d4601660e2ff345cd31d1de9fcdac3c1cf7d3a3797c46281a30136fcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 28c | 10,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.99 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 72c | 8,000$5,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 5,312$3,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.17 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 71c | 1,420$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.53 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 28c | 850$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 73c | 836$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.72 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 28c | 800$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 72c | 690.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.64 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 72c | 605$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.4 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 29c | 599.95$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 420.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 28c | 420$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 28c | 420$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 28c | 399.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 28c | 330$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 78c | 322.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.44 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 28c | 320$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 28c | 320$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 28c | 299.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 74c | 269.5$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 26c | 269.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 24c | 218.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 15c | 184.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 28c | 170$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 28c | 170$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 72c | 147.56$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 71c | 134$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d7…e943backed Over | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 126 | 57.9%73 W · 53 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 72c | 105.34$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Under | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 72c | 97.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 29c | 82.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Under | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Under | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Under | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 113 | 60.2%68 W · 45 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Under | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Under | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Under | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Under | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Under | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…64e1backed Over | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe323…f90abacked Over | 71c | 52.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…893bbacked Over | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0acd…db47backed Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Over | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…c577backed Over | 72c | 33.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 72c | 27.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 72c | 25.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda8c…47eabacked Over | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Over | 72c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…4e55backed Over | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 73c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.