Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcfec8a1c85343baed2d0155aef796c32d8cff3f97d77d3cafbf20a1f1174d45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 48c | 4,593$2,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392.03 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 54c | 1,866$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.97 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee39…59bfbacked Yes | 57c | 1,426$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 46c | 1,048$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.75 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 46c | 954.85$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.29 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 53c | 849.06$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…218abacked Yes | 54c | 677.87$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 45c | 623.38$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.77 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…f2f2backed Yes | 53c | 470.75$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 48c | 370.7$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.08 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…e4f6backed Yes | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Yes | 54c | 363.85$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.48 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 46c | 228$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Yes | 49c | 189.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Yes | 54c | 186.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…19fcbacked Yes | 59c | 169.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed No | 69c | 165.78$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 49c | 165.28$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 56c | 159.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Yes | 37c | 152$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…f4e4backed Yes | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked Yes | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 38c | 79.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Yes | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked No | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 53c | 74.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 47c | 54.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 53c | 53.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9e…ee7ebacked Yes | 54c | 49.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…eff2backed Yes | 53c | 47.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889d…e36bbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…644bbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1d…380cbacked Yes | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc888…f2cebacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 51c | 25.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2acd…0604backed Yes | 54c | 21.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…b300backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.