Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bd0cc450f9564b32acaa90726c45fed3e85f4af9961e89dd5bbde089f307f24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 3,961$2,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.6 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 75c | 2,933$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.74 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 25c | 2,342$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.43 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…01e0backed Over | 24c | 1,781$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 24c | 1,247$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.28 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 27c | 1,143$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.16 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 27c | 1,112$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.72 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 26c | 676.5$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.89 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f0…e0a7backed Under | 78c | 641.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 80c | 520$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 74c | 516.99$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.42 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Under | 67c | 350.75$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.75 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 60c | 350$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 20c | 321$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Over | 23c | 310$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 27c | 309.87$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 28c | 302.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 32c | 277.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 28c | 161.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 25c | 130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…a4dfbacked Over | 44c | 111.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 23c | 96.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Over | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 36c | 86.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 31c | 77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 40c | 75.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 16c | 70.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 76c | 64.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…1b85backed Over | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 24c | 57.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…62dfbacked Under | 58c | 56.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Over | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Under | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…e77bbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 73c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.