MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96cf75d3a68b9bb6c1686925c8d2b97b398a21b5ce74c3d8ec77656a6ca76fa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Texas Rangers, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Athletics | 57c | 31,098$17,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,374.05 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 8,544$3,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,673.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 6,179$2,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,656.97 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 6,000$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 1,723$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.75 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Texas Rangers | 41c | 1,670$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.47 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 1,600$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 1,535$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 1,380$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.82 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 1,364$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…e762backed Athletics | 65c | 750.11$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.04 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 714.29$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.14 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 714.29$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.14 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 632.02$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 339$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.77 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 56c | 181.81$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 67c | 159$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 138$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 123$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 95.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 70c | 91.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Texas Rangers | 44c | 89.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Athletics | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1662…24cebacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed Athletics | 61c | 45.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Athletics | 65c | 42.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Athletics | 60c | 39.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Athletics | 52c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 36.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Athletics | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Athletics | 71c | 20.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Athletics | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Athletics | 58c | 18.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.