MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97adaf045ffbdcb9749406e879556ec8688f14466d777b0077d52a3d6fcef612
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 5,128$2,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,256.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 56c | 4,379$2,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.76 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 66c | 1,754$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.36 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 882.95$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 63c | 704.51$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.64 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 43c | 561.85$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.45 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…2ea3backed Over | 7c | 473$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 36c | 447$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.33 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 34c | 347.58$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Over | 35c | 291.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 38c | 275.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.53 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 32c | 271.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 61c | 220.96$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 34c | 215$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 64c | 211.2$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.06 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 36c | 179.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 34c | 176.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 58c | 163.05$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 38c | 144.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Over | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Over | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Over | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 36c | 128.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 37c | 124$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 67c | 92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…549dbacked Under | 56c | 72.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f5…8ad6backed Over | 31c | 70.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…8eebbacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Over | 40c | 35.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 70c | 32.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.