MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aa134826921cd0203fad7a9c8cbf0473bb14743cbeab1659efc750db7944ed6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 52c | 89,884$46,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,373.89 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 34,911$16,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,918.01 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Over | 48c | 20,600$9,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,888 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 15,625$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 51c | 12,558$6,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,153.41 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 8,133$4,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,002.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Under | 53c | 7,459$3,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,505.52 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Over | 48c | 6,120$2,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,937.6 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 47c | 5,903$2,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,774.27 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 49c | 5,796$2,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,827.73 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 47c | 4,512$2,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.51 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 2,200$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 2,097$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 2,061$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.57 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 50c | 1,977$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.47 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 48c | 1,952$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.96 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 58c | 1,902$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.17 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 48c | 1,600$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 1,327$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 50c | 1,170$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.15 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 47c | 1,002$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.94 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 48c | 835.49$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.12 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 555.29$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 48c | 438$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.62 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 49c | 424.09$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.75 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 49c | 411.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 52c | 400$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 48c | 328.5$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.62 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 52c | 303.34$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.61 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 41c | 300$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.52 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 52c | 276$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.14 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 51c | 269.98$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.09 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 51c | 251.15$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.06 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 53c | 244.48$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.57 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…8fd9backed Under | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 46c | 223$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.42 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Over | 48c | 217$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Under | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 53c | 149.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 49c | 149.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 147.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 57c | 145$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 47c | 141.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 48c | 134$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Over | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 51c | 121.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68aa…0f92backed Under | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 24c | 99.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 52c | 97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 42c | 95.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 47c | 88.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 51c | 81.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 52c | 75.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Over | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 47c | 54.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Over | 30c | 53.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 40c | 42.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 51c | 39.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…5884backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…02f0backed Over | 47c | 37.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Over | 47c | 37.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…dd3cbacked Over | 52c | 36.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 52c | 30.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 52c | 28.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 24.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 53c | 22.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Over | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 51c | 20.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…cb3dbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.