TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 2 above $245?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,822
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,126

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,822 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x969f…4d55backed Yes21c6,627$1,383 inLost-$1,383.221,11143.7%486 W · 625 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes44c1,000$437 inLost-$43760%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c1,000$25 inLost-$254168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No57c951.95$545 inWon+$40748234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes31c885.44$276 inLost-$276.164914.3%7 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-49.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c466$36 inLost-$35.761,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No70c383.63$267 inWon+$116.2643838.8%170 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes21c358.5$76 inLost-$76.2215131.1%47 W · 104 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No51c217.67$110 inWon+$107.3713941.7%58 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed49…721abacked No51c200.83$103 inWon+$97.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdefe…17f4backed No53c200$106 inWon+$944560%27 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4957…f25ebacked Yes37c194.17$72 inLost-$71.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed No65c179.53$117 inWon+$62.3423245.3%105 W · 127 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes11c177.81$20 inLost-$20.3519419.1%37 W · 157 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-49%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f3b…be48backed Yes47c150$71 inLost-$71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcac0…3f7ebacked Yes18c132.5$23 inLost-$23.341735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+54.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No47c123$58 inWon+$65.1986338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes29c117.32$34 inLost-$34.4719934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes21c83.97$18 inLost-$17.8510427.9%29 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes26c69.56$18 inLost-$17.951,77949.1%873 W · 906 L+143.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2361…e16ebacked No75c55.95$42 inWon+$13.9916844.6%75 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39f6…c6efbacked Yes31c50$16 inLost-$15.54818.8%9 W · 39 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No52c49.73$26 inWon+$23.8799038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes39c30$12 inLost-$11.727429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes35c30$11 inLost-$10.58140.7%33 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.