TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 2 above $210?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,472
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,266

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,472 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2cce…6e85backed Yes12c5,178$640 inWon+$4,537.341118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+32.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x969f…4d55backed No45c4,598$2,083 inLost-$2,083.131,11143.7%486 W · 625 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae5…910abacked No2c1,000$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No10c892.45$92 inLost-$92.184914.3%7 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-49.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No2c749.97$15 inLost-$15.064168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5bb…bbabbacked Yes15c663.39$100 inWon+$563.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+231.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fde…cbbebacked No64c424.13$270 inLost-$270.0912727.6%35 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3373…4ae8backed Yes37c407.96$151 inWon+$257.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No6c396$25 inLost-$24.954418.2%8 W · 36 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+128.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No6c396$25 inLost-$24.951711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+244.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c384.08$21 inWon+$362.991,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No21c363$76 inLost-$75.518943.8%39 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No66c306.33$201 inLost-$201.232733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9551…8c45backed No78c219$172 inLost-$171.623479.4%27 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Yes31c210.25$64 inWon+$145.9548234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb764…51ddbacked Yes50c199.56$100 inWon+$99.563256.3%18 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No67c183.9$124 inLost-$123.715947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcac0…3f7ebacked Yes12c175.88$21 inWon+$155.21735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+54.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2db…6865backed Yes8c124.82$10 inWon+$114.7742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+152.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed Yes55c106$58 inWon+$47.5210442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes75c100$75 inWon+$25650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No13c91$12 inLost-$11.8356548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaed7…428dbacked Yes22c66.96$15 inWon+$51.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+346.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes22c59$13 inWon+$4610749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No69c43.94$30 inLost-$30.2535151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes47c35.25$17 inWon+$18.5619419.1%37 W · 157 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-49%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.