TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Twins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Nationals, Twins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,368
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,571

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,368 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3745…cf3bbacked Twins60c8,766$5,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,291.638047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Nationals39c5,424$2,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,308.6598149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Nationals40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0001,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Twins51c4,873$2,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,479.139,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Twins60c4,743$2,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,853.992,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Twins6c2,632$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9597950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Twins23c2,455$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.9754941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x532f…83ccbacked Nationals40c1,888$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.797548%36 W · 39 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Nationals47c1,478$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.7941747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Nationals41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5901,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c95…0a3abacked Twins60c945$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56711555.7%64 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Nationals48c926$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.726,30248.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L+181.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Nationals42c508$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.934051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Nationals49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25511040.9%45 W · 65 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…aee5backed Twins60c478$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.82157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nationals54c451.49$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.264,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Twins62c447.07$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.241,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Nationals79c411.23$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.357143.7%31 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Nationals51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1663052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x282c…784bbacked Twins8c388.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307733.8%26 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Twins24c370.78$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9017930.2%54 W · 125 L-9.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Twins55c317.82$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3432754.7%179 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Nationals38c317.2$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.6750843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cd3…1174backed Twins57c313$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.6319052.6%100 W · 90 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Twins4c302$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.624754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals39c300$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1831,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Nationals41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1772,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Nationals41c292.68$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.681,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Twins60c268$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.850852.6%267 W · 241 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Nationals39c256.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.456351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Nationals39c250$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.51,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6254…d8b7backed Twins57c249$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9112868%87 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56f6…9f57backed Twins57c248$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2831547.3%149 W · 166 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Twins62c246.67$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15299951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.92,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.92,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1126…4e82backed Nationals49c203$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.3260052.2%313 W · 287 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe259…b890backed Twins57c201.77$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9916162.1%100 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Twins54c196.37$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8811963.9%76 W · 43 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2719…28ddbacked Twins53c192.79$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1625364.4%163 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x534e…ecfebacked Twins58c181.66$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1827458.8%161 W · 113 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9823…02dbbacked Twins48c177.95$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8714565.5%95 W · 50 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Nationals41c153$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.272,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9587…cd8ebacked Nationals41c139.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.631244.2%138 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Twins59c138.66$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.815940.7%24 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc62f…f330backed Nationals44c136.36$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.3614649.3%72 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ade…5b61backed Nationals40c122.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.792100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+112.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Nationals40c120.83$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.51,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Nationals75c117.43$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.681,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bf7…cdb7backed Nationals43c116.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4345749.7%227 W · 230 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Nationals41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c4…25e7backed Nationals40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Twins52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Twins58c98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.788336.1%30 W · 53 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Nationals40c87.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51,29956.7%737 W · 562 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Nationals80c86.17$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.281,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed Nationals41c80$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.220851.9%108 W · 100 L+0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Nationals65c75.52$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4354441.2%224 W · 320 L-22.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nationals40c72$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.291,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals47c71.56$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.112,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Twins58c70.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8938444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Nationals39c70$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.717354.9%95 W · 78 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ee1…dae8backed Nationals39c67.21$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416456.3%36 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x639e…a9d4backed Twins61c65.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014945%67 W · 82 L-9.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9354…6502backed Twins24c61.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5111560%69 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13af…d1cabacked Nationals41c60.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9811145%50 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Nationals40c60.68$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6485047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Twins54c57.22$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.934164.2%219 W · 122 L+22.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6082…6ce2backed Nationals41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.518148.6%88 W · 93 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2885…486cbacked Nationals39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.54136.6%15 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5930…f3fdbacked Nationals41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.58552.9%45 W · 40 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Twins59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.54443.2%19 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ee4…b575backed Nationals44c44.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9751245.1%231 W · 281 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Nationals40c42.25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3517037.6%64 W · 106 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Nationals38c42$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.041,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x282f…ac8dbacked Nationals46c39.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1326845.5%122 W · 146 L+1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafbc…a8b5backed Nationals39c38.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4637552.5%197 W · 178 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb58…0e11backed Twins58c36.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1942955%236 W · 193 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Nationals41c36.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.591,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Nationals41c36.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5957545.9%264 W · 311 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ab…f2a9backed Nationals40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1842651.2%218 W · 208 L+20.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Nationals39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.350447.2%238 W · 266 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a04…793dbacked Twins61c29.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186456.3%36 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x245e…232abacked Twins60c26.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc676…f35cbacked Nationals40c25.75$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4525550.2%128 W · 127 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe913…4c03backed Nationals40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152536%9 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14b7…b6aabacked Twins60c22.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef7…bd03backed Nationals66c21.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.246251.6%32 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b09…1df4backed Twins60c20.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4559…ca89backed Twins61c19.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1223543.4%102 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ec…9b45backed Twins60c18.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c13…0c93backed Twins61c18.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.