TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Nuggets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Magic, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$260,199
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$328,458

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,199 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 286 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic21c21,582$4,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,471.483,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeeee…f346backed Nuggets70c17,360$12,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,175.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Magic30c17,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.9947848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Magic28c10,000$2,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,832.775552.7%29 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe626…2fe6backed Nuggets76c7,897$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,897.49572.6%69 W · 26 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Magic1c6,504$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.531,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc28c…b2bdbacked Nuggets70c6,500$4,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.35per pick46cpaid-84.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x02ae…0e43backed Magic30c5,901$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770.21172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick42cpaid+96.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Nuggets78c5,373$4,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.261,05353.5%563 W · 490 L-15.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Nuggets73c5,344$3,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.0262351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Magic31c3,763$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.755,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…3e11backed Nuggets76c3,710$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.3722049.1%108 W · 112 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Magic1c3,550$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.54573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Magic34c3,223$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.351,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed Magic19c3,119$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.7147656.5%269 W · 207 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Magic25c3,055$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.7140627.8%113 W · 293 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Nuggets66c3,006$1,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02249849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d80…5fd8backed Nuggets75c3,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75030251.7%156 W · 146 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Magic30c2,554$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.219152.4%100 W · 91 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x90b6…1d6bbacked Nuggets73c2,408$1,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.6450245.8%230 W · 272 L+2.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Magic1c2,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Magic17c2,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9830826.6%82 W · 226 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Magic27c1,951$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.381,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe81a…1643backed Magic23c1,945$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.31643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Nuggets72c1,944$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.446873.5%50 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Magic32c1,823$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.0619149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Magic14c1,780$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.3234532.8%113 W · 232 L-16.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c39…15d7backed Nuggets79c1,677$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.134870.8%34 W · 14 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ad…b747backed Magic31c1,613$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+35.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ef3…d60ebacked Nuggets71c1,500$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4351050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf98e…40a5backed Magic30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Magic23c1,485$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.191,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Nuggets68c1,454$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.5729652.7%156 W · 140 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a16…33dbbacked Nuggets72c1,429$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.61376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6746…5bfdbacked Magic40c1,330$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5322650%13 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Magic1c1,282$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.137502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Magic25c1,200$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,02848.5%499 W · 529 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74e1…e6a2backed Nuggets69c1,200$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3722450%12 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Nuggets74c1,200$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.9637954.1%205 W · 174 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid0%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Nuggets72c1,173$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.491,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Nuggets68c1,139$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.4343653.2%232 W · 204 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Nuggets69c1,112$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.7296447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Magic22c1,043$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.0468642.1%289 W · 397 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Magic21c1,023$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21037011.4%42 W · 328 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe8…56a3backed Magic27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27032130.2%97 W · 224 L-0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Nuggets66c1,000$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.517044.1%75 W · 95 L-0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x373c…2456backed Magic29c999.99$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2901346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Magic1c932$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.851,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8097…8a5fbacked Nuggets71c915.65$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.5427546.9%129 W · 146 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Nuggets60c886.68$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.6719033.7%64 W · 126 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1322…89c7backed Nuggets70c841.14$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.341040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Magic31c811.29$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.2170640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7620…d9f0backed Magic31c807.07$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.191353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf40…1bd2backed Magic28c800$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.3312232%39 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d33…ffdbbacked Nuggets70c773.86$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.161758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda6b…20bebacked Nuggets70c738.57$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.578343.4%36 W · 47 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x896f…9cd4backed Nuggets62c700$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2663033.3%10 W · 20 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-36.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4407…8f2bbacked Nuggets72c636.64$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.265347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78f0…79e4backed Magic30c600$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Magic25c599.97$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.991,09035.8%390 W · 700 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf7…a4fdbacked Magic26c592.24$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe727…a39cbacked Magic3c588.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1665726%171 W · 486 L+2.3wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e79…56dcbacked Nuggets75c579.85$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.7114438.9%56 W · 88 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fdc…42f9backed Magic31c550.44$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.284858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cf9…755dbacked Nuggets75c547.65$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.913476.5%26 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf00f…711abacked Nuggets72c519.97$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.5917047.1%80 W · 90 L+0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Magic28c509.99$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8585542%359 W · 496 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Magic30c503.43$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,88837.3%704 W · 1,184 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6442…2163backed Magic40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004738.3%18 W · 29 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x520a…ab8abacked Magic29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14551037.5%191 W · 319 L+1.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked Magic28c500$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6572341.2%298 W · 425 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Magic24c499.95$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9935046%161 W · 189 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ef7…f922backed Nuggets75c436$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa1…4340backed Magic25c420.31$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1077636.8%28 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13ce…35f0backed Nuggets72c405.08$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.4228063.9%179 W · 101 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ad1…a60ebacked Magic25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed Magic31c380.2$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5870951.3%364 W · 345 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x854f…00a7backed Magic21c339.35$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6147229.4%139 W · 333 L-33.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Nuggets70c334.28$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.284443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x193d…2eb4backed Magic31c325.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010240.2%41 W · 61 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Nuggets72c316.9$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1988053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed Magic22c310.01$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.25628.6%16 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+104.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8f…3435backed Nuggets75c304.89$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.22650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3541…c96dbacked Nuggets65c304.29$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.7124329.6%72 W · 171 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Magic20c300.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6067911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73f0…3d28backed Nuggets69c299.98$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.9936434.9%127 W · 237 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b9…303dbacked Magic25c288$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0283…5dc7backed Magic25c280$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Magic25c279.52$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8887647.5%416 W · 460 L+3.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Nuggets72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7856348.5%273 W · 290 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb8a…f0ddbacked Magic29c274.06$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.535916.9%10 W · 49 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ed8…a259backed Magic39c256.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005431.5%17 W · 37 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Magic26c235$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2317335.8%62 W · 111 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Nuggets76c228.3$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6825845%116 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6e4…0ee5backed Nuggets76c219.74$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7428651.4%147 W · 139 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53f4…8c52backed Nuggets71c211.27$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2710540%42 W · 63 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b14…d18cbacked Nuggets71c202.3$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.676259.7%37 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…7ff3backed Magic32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6428651.4%147 W · 139 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef63…96cbbacked Magic26c200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5137831.2%118 W · 260 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b77…449fbacked Magic30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.