TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 41.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,746
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,746 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under46c2,481$1,143 inLost-$1,142.531,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd1d…2190backed Over54c1,855$1,000 inWon+$855.11728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abf…6024backed Over55c545.9$300 inWon+$245.94045%18 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under45c507.57$228 inLost-$228.41,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Over54c400$216 inWon+$1848345.8%38 W · 45 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under4c285.71$11 inLost-$11.4350242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under47c206$97 inLost-$97.2747348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over53c201$107 inWon+$94.4734652.9%183 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf58b…38b2backed Over56c107.56$60 inWon+$47.564953.1%26 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over53c94.34$50 inWon+$44.346946.4%32 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under48c45$22 inLost-$21.653348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Under44c40$18 inLost-$17.612459.7%74 W · 50 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under47c40$19 inLost-$18.815145.7%69 W · 82 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3552…f07bbacked Over54c37.04$20 inWon+$17.046246.8%29 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under46c37.04$17 inLost-$17.0439447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Under49c36$18 inLost-$17.6314641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over54c32.41$17 inWon+$14.912552%13 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over53c30$16 inWon+$14.112756.7%72 W · 55 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84f0…327cbacked Under48c27$13 inLost-$12.961154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+29.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaad7…5557backed Under46c26.59$12 inLost-$12.23119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.32per pick41cpaid-78.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under47c21.4$10 inLost-$10.0620944.5%93 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Over53c21.4$11 inWon+$10.0623447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Over56c20$11 inWon+$8.868446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc13f…5057backed Over53c20$11 inWon+$9.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.