TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 43.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$203,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$203,486

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,269 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaefe…1e4abacked Under56c202,038$113,141 inLost-$113,141.221957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over44c150,000$66,000 inWon+$84,00016955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Over44c29,270$12,879 inWon+$16,391.149359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over44c16,000$7,040 inWon+$8,96083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over44c5,911$2,601 inWon+$3,310.311,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf527…366bbacked Over46c217.39$100 inWon+$117.393930.8%12 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over44c200$88 inWon+$11253253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68e0…a3a6backed Over45c141$63 inWon+$77.551861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over45c135.34$61 inWon+$74.1734652.9%183 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0915…d08abacked Over46c110$51 inWon+$59.47745.5%35 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Over45c86$39 inWon+$47.32347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over45c66.75$30 inWon+$36.7220944.5%93 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over50c61$30 inWon+$30.6973651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c0…07d8backed Over45c61$27 inWon+$33.551947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Under51c60$31 inLost-$30.611253.6%60 W · 52 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcba…d962backed Over47c42.55$20 inWon+$22.553953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd568…655ebacked Under55c42$23 inLost-$23.11741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Over44c40$18 inWon+$22.412459.7%74 W · 50 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over49c40$20 inWon+$20.415145.7%69 W · 82 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae69…0c24backed Under55c35$19 inLost-$19.25955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29ab…b38dbacked Under55c30$17 inLost-$16.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1a1…be8bbacked Under55c23$13 inLost-$12.651136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5266…ddaebacked Under55c21$12 inLost-$11.55862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86a…9ed1backed Under55c21$12 inLost-$11.55850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4889…9b17backed Under55c20$11 inLost-$11837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.