NFL · resolved market
Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7c0b11a4fc027d704d472410b69758779d753fd3a6b2ee090a90553ed5fc582
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 3,860$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.13 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…0cc5backed Over | 66c | 2,143$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 34c | 2,077$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.25 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Over | 50c | 1,940$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.81 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 50c | 1,183$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.55 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Over | 49c | 546.7$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.82 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…007bbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Over | 51c | 205$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 50c | 167$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 38c | 161.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Over | 49c | 105$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7473…935bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 90.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Over | 49c | 89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 50c | 88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Over | 49c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…ccfabacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…e769backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Under | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Under | 51c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a45…36dcbacked Under | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 50c | 27.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Under | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -59%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 50c | 20.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 42.5this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Patriots won
- Patriots vs. JetsPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Jets: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 41.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 43.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 49.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-12.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-13.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-15.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-17.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-28.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-30.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-33.5)Jets won
- Spread: Patriots (-9.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.