NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25a574f218bc4907c7f0d96b0306d03f1f853e11e9ead423bc6a144795ae5e59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Jets | 38c | 936.84$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.51 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Patriots | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Patriots | 62c | 717.87$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.79 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Jets | 38c | 717.87$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.79 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Patriots | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jets | 38c | 499.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Patriots | 62c | 330$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.48 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jets | 38c | 272$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Jets | 37c | 268.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Patriots | 62c | 235.87$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…040abacked Patriots | 66c | 152.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Jets | 38c | 129.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Jets | 38c | 123$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Jets | 41c | 122.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Jets | 42c | 108$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Patriots | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Jets | 38c | 93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Jets | 38c | 91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Jets | 37c | 86.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Jets | 40c | 84.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Jets | 34c | 77.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked Patriots | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Jets | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Patriots | 63c | 63.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Jets | 38c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Jets | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…e94cbacked Patriots | 60c | 58.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Patriots | 62c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Patriots | 58c | 52.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Patriots | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Patriots | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Patriots | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Jets | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Patriots | 62c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Jets | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…e2d3backed Patriots | 64c | 34.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jets | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Patriots | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…7ed2backed Patriots | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab52…5487backed Patriots | 61c | 32.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Patriots | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Patriots | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Patriots | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Patriots | 64c | 28.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Patriots | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +57%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Patriots | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Patriots | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed Patriots | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Patriots | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Patriots | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Patriots | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Patriots | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Patriots | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Patriots won
- Patriots vs. JetsPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Jets: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 41.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 42.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 43.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 49.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-12.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-13.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-15.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-17.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-28.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-30.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-33.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.