NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebd607f4aed606ce07b8c97da96b62a5ae80f70dc7bfd0330cccbe637a411290
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd89e…35fabacked Patriots | 55c | 21,993$12,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,902.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jets | 45c | 11,519$5,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,189.29 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Jets | 49c | 6,839$3,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,351.24 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jets | 45c | 6,090$2,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,740.5 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Patriots | 51c | 4,215$2,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.16 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Jets | 48c | 2,421$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.13 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Patriots | 52c | 1,600$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Jets | 48c | 650.33$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.16 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Patriots | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Patriots | 52c | 503.71$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.78 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Jets | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jets | 50c | 474$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…d38fbacked Jets | 50c | 401.8$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Jets | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Patriots | 52c | 376.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.96 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Jets | 45c | 147.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Patriots | 52c | 101.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Jets | 46c | 85.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Jets | 47c | 81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Patriots | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Jets | 47c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Jets | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Jets | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Jets | 46c | 60.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6127backed Patriots | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3381…52bcbacked Jets | 47c | 57.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…d491backed Jets | 48c | 50.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Jets | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Patriots | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Patriots | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Jets | 46c | 45.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5002…23dbbacked Patriots | 55c | 45.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jets | 46c | 43.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Jets | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Patriots | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3415…034cbacked Patriots | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715c…78c0backed Patriots | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Patriots | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Patriots | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Patriots | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…9289backed Jets | 49c | 29.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Patriots | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Patriots | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Jets | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Patriots | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Patriots won
- Patriots vs. JetsPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Jets: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 41.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 42.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 43.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 49.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Jets: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-13.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-15.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-17.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-28.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-30.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-33.5)Jets won
- Spread: Patriots (-9.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.