Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97488ddce4d929fa7456e741a7b779ae93f4693650b816b74dd814c39cd0ad03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd647…0a6cbacked No | 1c | 1,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 74c | 1,199$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.31 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef5…4cc6backed Yes | 79c | 904.54$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 71cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 45c | 808.33$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.11 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 62c | 718.93$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.33 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 21c | 693.28$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.55 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f22…df03backed Yes | 68c | 516.14$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…2e13backed No | 63c | 482.14$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 48c | 370.43$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 14c | 291.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.11 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 52c | 249.1$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.43 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 23c | 192.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 46c | 175.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.62 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 18c | 162.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 40c | 159.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 27c | 152.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 32c | 144.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.42 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed Yes | 14c | 142.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked Yes | 73c | 138.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 16c | 119.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 26c | 117.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…43aabacked Yes | 18c | 108.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 101.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…86f9backed Yes | 14c | 99.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 18c | 94.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.84 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 50c | 92.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 89.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 37c | 84.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe995…1e98backed Yes | 21c | 82.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +382.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae08…e545backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 74.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 26c | 71.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 80c | 69.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked Yes | 62c | 65.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f2…d8b1backed Yes | 71c | 63.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…5ab0backed Yes | 79c | 62.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked No | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec26…c346backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…a738backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…4b6cbacked Yes | 78c | 59.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 57.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6ca2backed No | 68c | 53.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 53.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c55…d5d5backed No | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…432fbacked Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…6a86backed Yes | 31c | 42.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…3e11backed No | 55c | 40.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe1…608dbacked No | 58c | 39.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed No | 63c | 37.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e3…bed9backed Yes | 77c | 36.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…0711backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…667ebacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…4f6cbacked Yes | 80c | 27.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed Yes | 41c | 27.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…0ca9backed Yes | 61c | 25.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 77c | 24.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…4981backed Yes | 73c | 23.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…96eabacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 68cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…a9a4backed Yes | 78c | 21.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…70e6backed Yes | 64c | 18.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed No | 79c | 17.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on January 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.