Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09eeacbdec926a457098a5cda67e09d30ed6c288a86b32e7bb451dd3b6c5bc9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ca5…3d5abacked Yes | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…224dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,581$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.58 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 59c | 1,803$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.87 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 60c | 1,766$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.18 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,071$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.81 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 36c | 943.35$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.53 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 41c | 759.89$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.94 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 28c | 554.89$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.07 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed No | 38c | 505.75$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed No | 30c | 489.96$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.12 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 27c | 370.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.17 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 12c | 319.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 11c | 305$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f22…df03backed Yes | 51c | 296.57$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 20c | 293.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.48 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 21c | 277.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8672…a96ebacked Yes | 72c | 269.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked No | 34c | 269.76$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.77 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…5c5cbacked Yes | 78c | 263.4$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.73 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 44c | 257.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.81 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…2c54backed Yes | 22c | 247.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…1482backed No | 78c | 241.94$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 30c | 234.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.72 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…6a86backed Yes | 24c | 225.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 71c | 225.1$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.41 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 38c | 210.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.28 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked Yes | 17c | 207.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 39c | 204.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.56 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 189.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcea…18cbbacked Yes | 11c | 149.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 54c | 144$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed No | 28c | 142.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d2…3fd4backed Yes | 80c | 141.46$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb61d…b3acbacked No | 74c | 139.69$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 134.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e3…bed9backed Yes | 69c | 119.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 47c | 116.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 69c | 105$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 27c | 97.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…cf0cbacked Yes | 75c | 95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 41c | 91.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…1e1abacked No | 79c | 90.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077e…9f15backed Yes | 76c | 89.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…1d49backed No | 23c | 88.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed No | 70c | 84.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd962…1d5cbacked Yes | 65c | 82.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f2…d8b1backed Yes | 40c | 81.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 22c | 75.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 74.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 34c | 73.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb9…533fbacked Yes | 15c | 71.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 59c | 71.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…5274backed No | 39c | 69.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 46c | 65.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed No | 48c | 63.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…3f1bbacked No | 22c | 63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 62.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 64c | 62.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286f…82a5backed No | 74c | 60.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x902c…ef98backed Yes | 65c | 59.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 65c | 59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 55.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…ffdfbacked Yes | 72c | 52.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…0711backed Yes | 60c | 52.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6739…7b70backed No | 69c | 52.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd34…a1d7backed No | 69c | 52.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7768…246abacked No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…432fbacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860a…98edbacked Yes | 65c | 47.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ca…2f7fbacked Yes | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 67c | 44.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 43c | 44.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fda…8b58backed Yes | 70c | 40.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ea…104ebacked Yes | 64c | 40.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 40c | 38.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…0388backed No | 56c | 37.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 39c | 36.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6525backed Yes | 49c | 30.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 49c | 30.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…e547backed Yes | 66c | 30.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…472fbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 35c | 29.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe818…98f4backed Yes | 69c | 28.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 57c | 27.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 66c | 27.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…70e6backed Yes | 59c | 27.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…8239backed Yes | 73c | 27.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a9…64f3backed Yes | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6ca2backed No | 49c | 23.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…a9a4backed Yes | 54c | 22.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…0ca9backed Yes | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…96eabacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 68cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on January 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.