TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Michigan State Spartansof Michigan State Spartans, Washington Huskies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,770
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,116

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,770 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Michigan State Spartans51c4,610$2,342 inWon+$2,267.822,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Michigan State Spartans50c3,250$1,636 inWon+$1,614.091,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Washington Huskies50c3,000$1,500 inLost-$1,50028539.6%113 W · 172 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Washington Huskies49c2,247$1,094 inLost-$1,093.644,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Washington Huskies52c826.81$427 inLost-$426.9910753.3%57 W · 50 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Washington Huskies49c477$234 inLost-$233.7340147.6%191 W · 210 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Washington Huskies50c400$200 inLost-$20074152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Michigan State Spartans50c400$200 inWon+$2001,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Washington Huskies49c375.37$184 inLost-$183.936538.5%25 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Michigan State Spartans53c284$150 inWon+$134.152,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Washington Huskies50c218$109 inLost-$109.1860548.9%296 W · 309 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Washington Huskies50c200$100 inLost-$10057448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Washington Huskies50c200$100 inLost-$1001,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03b0…482cbacked Michigan State Spartans50c200$100 inWon+$1004860.4%29 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Michigan State Spartans69c200$137 inWon+$62.648051%245 W · 235 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Washington Huskies46c197$90 inLost-$90.255,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa177…6e84backed Washington Huskies51c196.08$100 inLost-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Huskies29c193.43$56 inLost-$55.685,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Washington Huskies52c153.85$80 inLost-$807452.7%39 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Washington Huskies50c120$60 inLost-$6020254.5%110 W · 92 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Washington Huskies51c105.06$53 inLost-$53.0689850%449 W · 449 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Washington Huskies50c102.49$51 inLost-$50.8912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf936…f310backed Michigan State Spartans51c97.15$50 inWon+$47.151145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc176…35dcbacked Michigan State Spartans51c80.37$41 inWon+$39.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Michigan State Spartans48c77$37 inWon+$40.041,07447%505 W · 569 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Michigan State Spartans70c75.02$52 inWon+$22.862,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Michigan State Spartans51c60$31 inWon+$29.432652.8%172 W · 154 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Washington Huskies49c51$25 inLost-$24.9925436.6%93 W · 161 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Washington Huskies49c35$17 inLost-$17.1545644.5%203 W · 253 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Michigan State Spartans48c30$14 inWon+$15.61,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Washington Huskies49c30$15 inLost-$14.757335.6%204 W · 369 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x83fb…e89bbacked Michigan State Spartans50c27$14 inWon+$13.516952.7%89 W · 80 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Washington Huskies49c25$12 inLost-$12.2532343%139 W · 184 L-18.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12f7…c7fabacked Washington Huskies49c23.35$11 inLost-$11.445046%23 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.