Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97e09ae1a02a92c831e075201d3190d66d0553a04f864be3ba6cb9c9ddbb4f89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,610$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,531$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.79 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 23c | 748.83$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 10c | 748.34$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 8c | 669.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 508.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 8c | 459.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 9c | 365.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 9c | 350.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 6c | 322.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…c74ebacked Yes | 10c | 314.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 14c | 307.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 296.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 11c | 296.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 12c | 280.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 12c | 277.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 276.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 262.71$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 243.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 220.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed No | 78c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 9c | 187.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 10c | 185.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 6c | 185.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…a4cabacked Yes | 7c | 183.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 14c | 165.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 7c | 160.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 149.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 9c | 121.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 13c | 109.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 11c | 100.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or below on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 104-105°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.