Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dd57912145162937d1630861661751fa4ee8dd53ca1263c086752fcbfd85a73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 23c | 996.68$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.26 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 886.84$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.58 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 886.23$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.06 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 21c | 718.65$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.01 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 698.16$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 25c | 608.61$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.32 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 23c | 553.68$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 520.26$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8223…7cecbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 470$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 464.46$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 455.28$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.92 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 36c | 454.07$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.25 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 410.75$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.09 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 405$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 397.27$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 51c | 370.21$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.78 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 360.67$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 356.8$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 283.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 36c | 274.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 249$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 237.5$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed Yes | 12c | 224$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 220.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…57c7backed Yes | 50c | 214.42$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 211$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 77c | 203.38$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 23c | 199.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 18c | 193.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 33c | 179.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 22c | 178.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 175$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 79c | 169.12$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 32c | 159.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 22c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 139.81$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 138.92$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 133.87$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 133.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 126.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…5d56backed Yes | 34c | 124.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 43c | 124.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 24c | 122.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 115.65$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 111.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 108.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 107.76$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 29c | 106.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 22c | 105.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 34c | 104.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 102.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 101.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 99.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 97.59$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Yes | 25c | 87.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 86.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 82.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 28c | 81.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 77c | 78.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 76.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1807…274dbacked No | 67c | 74.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 74.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 74.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 22c | 71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 66c | 70.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 18c | 64.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 22c | 64.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 62.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 36c | 61.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…e7dcbacked Yes | 24c | 59.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 74c | 59.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 75c | 59.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 79c | 58.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 24c | 56.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 73c | 54.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb9…d1bcbacked Yes | 19c | 53.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed Yes | 31c | 52.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0427…a652backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…bc45backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 22c | 49.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 74c | 49.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 49.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 50c | 47.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or below on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 104-105°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.