Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cd43c634c2689470a50f3b0d392feddc013ff8040e0ccf22c17ef1a4df8db94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 21c | 2,241$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.26 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,797$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 8c | 1,097$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked No | 76c | 831.22$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.22 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 711.22$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 599.39$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 467.85$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 407.15$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 265.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 249.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 23c | 241.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 19c | 165.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 24c | 148$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 23c | 144.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 16c | 140.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 139.81$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 133.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 15c | 129.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e5…2dc4backed No | 79c | 127.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 13c | 123.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 119.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 104.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 103.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb9…d1bcbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 16c | 97.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6178…3ac9backed Yes | 20c | 91.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 80.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…a4cabacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 18c | 76.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 76.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 20c | 75.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 62.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 77c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 23c | 58.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 57.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 57.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 20c | 53.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 20c | 53.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0427…a652backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6957…3d11backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…bc45backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 49.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 46.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 41.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…e520backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 80c | 23.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or below on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 104-105°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.