Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb602183aa09b877de3a7935abd2cf33b70d84676e12c7134780c8b47e1c3d873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,716$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 50c | 1,281$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.13 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 814.29$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 48c | 698$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.55 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 34c | 624.79$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 47c | 495.03$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.37 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 491.19$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 55c | 455.29$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 443.73$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 426$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.89 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 408.7$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.15 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 395.54$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 18c | 368.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 359.28$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 39c | 330.09$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 56c | 329.04$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.81 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed No | 66c | 315.75$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.59 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 23c | 288.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 36c | 271.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.27 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 253.41$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 253$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 227.69$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 199.24$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.51 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 194$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 34c | 191.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.51 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…57c7backed Yes | 54c | 189.93$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 187$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.53 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 69c | 169.84$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 59c | 167.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 139.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 46c | 139.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 133.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 55c | 128.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 118.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 49c | 110.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed No | 45c | 108$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked No | 46c | 105.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed No | 55c | 101.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 97.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 59c | 95.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 24c | 93.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 51c | 91.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 88.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…8145backed Yes | 57c | 85.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 84.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…0d83backed No | 54c | 83.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…fec5backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 39c | 80.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 80.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 76.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 46c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 44c | 69.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 27c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 44c | 65.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 28c | 63.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 62.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 44c | 58.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 55c | 56.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 55.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 53.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 30c | 51.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 70c | 51.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 53c | 50.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 35c | 49.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed No | 73c | 49.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 54c | 48.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…03a0backed Yes | 50c | 46.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 52c | 46.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 45.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 44.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked Yes | 61c | 42.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8a…5d15backed Yes | 44c | 42.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 41.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 41.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 40.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 35c | 39.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 34c | 38.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 39c | 38.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 48c | 38.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 44c | 37.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…abf0backed No | 73c | 34.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 58c | 33.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed No | 55c | 33.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 43c | 32.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or below on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 104-105°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.