Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97f5fbbdd441b6524bc71fae964326e7247f2810e50da7e26fdd43c629ddf687
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 73c | 1,107$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.51 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 1c | 974.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 80c | 864.65$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 2c | 657.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 595$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.45 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 29c | 379.37$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 17c | 343.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 11c | 343.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 336.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 295.99$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 28c | 277.81$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 256.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 17c | 239.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 210.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 210.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0be…e6c2backed Yes | 19c | 183.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed Yes | 16c | 125.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 119.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…90bcbacked No | 80c | 114.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 70cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 107.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 14c | 100.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a4…fb64backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 98.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 86.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 24c | 84.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 66.31$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 74c | 48.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c02…ad12backed No | 77c | 45.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 44.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 41.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…36e5backed No | 75c | 38.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 32.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 76c | 31.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 75c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 80c | 25.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 23.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 78c | 16.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 76c | 15.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…88dabacked No | 76c | 13.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.