Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe10dea5d166f83e809bac15f63c20a4c62dffc86f892bc20afedda08cdcb9550
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,484$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 1c | 2,181$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,463$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.07 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 2c | 1,432$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb851…0dfebacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.61 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 21c | 556.59$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.71 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 11c | 507$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 12c | 483.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 469.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 435.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 64c | 391.32$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.43 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…5cd7backed No | 54c | 372.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.68 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 371.6$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 322.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 63c | 317.22$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.83 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 295.98$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60b…6788backed Yes | 30c | 295.16$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 293.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed No | 52c | 277.84$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.38 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…eeb0backed Yes | 36c | 276.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 12c | 241.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 238.28$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 221.89$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes | 43c | 212$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 209.16$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779c…699ebacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…d541backed Yes | 31c | 180$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 145.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Yes | 51c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 126.1$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 121$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 70c | 95.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 95.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 68c | 88.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 85.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 25c | 81.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 80.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes | 43c | 79.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 72.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 69.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 67.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…9f95backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 32c | 64.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 41c | 58.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc753…b617backed Yes | 29c | 54.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 34c | 54.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 42c | 53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 43.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 35c | 41.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 31c | 40.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 30.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b41…b5cebacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…0a91backed Yes | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 69c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 58c | 24.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 42c | 24.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 67c | 19.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 60c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…50b3backed No | 74c | 16.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 70c | 16.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.