Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dc22314d3874802666326c2b159d6d095164bdde4b3bae1311cf5b4975093e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 866.08$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.92 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 20c | 815.72$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.88 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 39c | 753.17$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.11 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 3c | 522.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 448.46$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.99 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 296$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 282.96$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 15c | 220$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 49c | 167.43$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…eeb0backed Yes | 34c | 152.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 69c | 134$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 126.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 33c | 120$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 34c | 119.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 115.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 101.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 66c | 101.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a1…4b1dbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 87.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 68c | 85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…9f95backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 66c | 71.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 80c | 68.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 65.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 65.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b7…8a8dbacked Yes | 34c | 63.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 35c | 60.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked No | 76c | 53.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 25c | 51.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 58c | 50.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 66c | 47.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 32c | 46.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 41c | 44.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 43.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 41.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce4…46aebacked No | 68c | 40.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 39.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 39.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 38.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x779c…699ebacked Yes | 29c | 37.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 34.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e2…db13backed No | 69c | 31.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 30.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 26.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 71c | 26.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf0…1ea1backed No | 38c | 26.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 80c | 26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 69c | 25.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 65c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…f2c6backed No | 67c | 24.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 67c | 21.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…3f06backed No | 67c | 20.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…7c35backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 67c | 19.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 67c | 19.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490b…ccc5backed No | 68c | 18.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…50b3backed No | 72c | 16.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed No | 74c | 16.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60b…6788backed Yes | 78c | 15.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.