Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x980942f58c4b778cce26a7bab15a8e9552b9eef4f437be97a58097130897ff3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed Yes | 0c | 21,569$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 2,157$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 604.14$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 78c | 511.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.74 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 12c | 510$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 5c | 475.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 451.75$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 38c | 400$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 5c | 299.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 295.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 26c | 293.31$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 7c | 287.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 32c | 280.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 6c | 259.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 8c | 255.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 32c | 251.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 11c | 199.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 23c | 192.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 184.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 17c | 175.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 10c | 174.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…d2d9backed Yes | 13c | 165.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 61c | 153.49$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 134.7$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 97.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 72c | 91.87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 11c | 91.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…a080backed Yes | 16c | 88.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 80c | 75.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 70.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 31c | 68.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b12…8743backed Yes | 26c | 56.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 39c | 54.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 52.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 48.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 48.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf517…a30cbacked No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 43.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 43.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 34.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 60c | 33.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 22.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.